Lithuania Backs Taiwan, Substantive Benefits Remain to Be Seen
United Daily News, August 15, 2021
Lithuania had announced that it would allow us to set up a representative office in Lithuania under the name of the "Taiwanese Representative Office", while the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen declared it a major diplomatic breakthrough. However, "Taiwanese" is not equivalent to the official name of the Republic of China (ROC) after all, and Lithuania has not given up its "One China” policy. The said "breakthrough" might only satisfy the psychological needs of some people.
Lithuania is slightly larger than Taiwan with a population of only 2.8 million. She is far away from Taiwan geographically. Two-way trade volume between these two countries has not been significant. Lithuania nudged toward Taiwan due to the United States factors. The Soviet Union incorporated Lithuania as the Lithuanian Soviet Socialist Republic during World War II. In March 1990, Lithuania declared independence when the Communist Party of the Soviet Union was about to disintegrate. At that time, the ROC government sought to establish diplomatic relations with Lithuania by sending officials to contact its counterparts in Vilnius. The situation seemed to be favorable to Taiwan. However, then Minister of Foreign Affairs Fredrick Chien pointed out: "We are willing to further develop diplomatic relations, but we must take into account of the other side’s real intention, and our country cannot harbor a wishful thinking". Lithuania might not have even considered establishing official relations with the ROC then. Unfortunately, just one week after Chien’s words, Lithuania established diplomatic relations with mainland China. In the communiqué of the establishment of diplomatic relations, Lithuania expressed, "The Government of the Republic of Lithuania recognizes the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China, and Taiwan is an inseparable part of the territory of China. The Government of the Republic of Lithuania undertakes not to establish official relations or conduct official exchanges with Taiwan.”
Relations between mainland China and Lithuania were not bad. However, after the United States took the lead in blocking China, together with the fermentation of the Xinjiang and Hong Kong issues, Lithuania began to drift away from China and turned to Taiwan for friendship. After Lithuania had allowed Taiwan to set up a representative office in Vilnius, mainland China announced that it was recalling its ambassador to Lithuania, and asked Lithuania to follow suit. Why did the mainland throw Lithuania into the wolves? There were two reasons. First, Vilnius took the lead to withdraw from the mainland-led Cooperation between China and Eastern European Countries (17 plus one). Second, Lithuania was the forerunner in allowing the establishment of the Taiwanese Representative Office in its capital city, even though the U.S. had not spearheaded the change of Taiwan office name in Washington. Against such background, mainland China must show Lithuania, an indocile nation, its true colors. Various thought leaders in the mainland have brainstormed ideas such as leveraging mainland China's permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council to vote against or veto resolutions related to Lithuania. However, it was only a battle of wills.
To prevent Lithuania from producing a domino effect in Eastern Europe, and to avoid an excessive Chinese blow to Lithuania that could result in a boycott of mainland China by other CEEC member states, which would be detrimental to the adoption of the "EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment," mainland China was clearly in a dilemma, and could only recall its ambassador and warn Lithuania not get out of the line. For Taiwan, this was a good thing, but it remains to be seen whether this will increase bilateral economic and trade relations. In terms of international politics, Lithuania has made it clear that it still adheres to the "One China” policy. As for the Taiwanese Representative Office to be in operation soon, whether the representative office would benefit the domestic and international situations of both sides also hinges on the development of world politics.